Rally · Control Tower — Texas / Oklahoma

① State layer — track & trace estimated @ 140h · conf 0.889 · drift ≤ 3u

sku	on-hand	available	status	confidence
DC_DAL
SKU_CHIP	3,483	3,483	ok	0.89
SKU_COLA	4,973	4,973	ok	0.89
SKU_BAR	114	114	ok	0.89
DC_HOU
SKU_CHIP	3,215	3,215	ok	0.89
SKU_COLA	4,591	4,591	ok	0.89
SKU_BAR	2,065	2,065	ok	0.89
DC_SAT
SKU_CHIP	2,411	2,411	ok	0.89
SKU_COLA	3,442	3,442	ok	0.89
SKU_BAR	1,551	1,551	ok	0.89
DC_OKC
SKU_CHIP	1,876	1,876	ok	0.89
SKU_COLA	2,679	2,679	ok	0.89
SKU_BAR	1,205	1,205	ok	0.89

Reconstructed from 6,790 sensor-shaped feed messages. Confidence falls with snapshot lag and sequence gaps — the eyes report how well they can see.

In-transit assets movement → shipment association

asset	shipment	at	confidence
TRK-1000	SHIP-96	DC_DAL	0.85
TRK-1001	SHIP-97	DC_DAL	0.85
TRK-1002	SHIP-98	DC_DAL	0.82
TRK-1003	SHIP-99	DC_HOU	0.79
TRK-1004	SHIP-100	DC_HOU	0.82
TRK-1005	SHIP-101	DC_HOU	0.85
TRK-1006	SHIP-102	DC_SAT	0.79
TRK-1007	SHIP-103	DC_SAT	0.75
TRK-1008	SHIP-104	DC_SAT	0.75
TRK-1009	SHIP-105	DC_OKC	0.75

② Decision queue 4 resolved · 4 escalated · sample of 52 graded decisions

exception	disposition	action	rationale	impact	conf
demand_spike	resolved ✓	pull_forward_production	pull forward RUN-SKU_CHIP-3 (+expedite 2823u PLANT_DAL→DC_OKC), ETA +5h	+2,214u saved	0.76
demand_spike	resolved ✓	pull_forward_production	pull forward RUN-SKU_CHIP-2 (+expedite 1424u PLANT_DAL→DC_DAL), ETA +4h	+514u saved	0.63
inbound_delay	resolved ✓	expedite_inbound	expedite inbound SHIP-102 (2652u), ETA 106h→59h	+562u saved	0.75
demand_spike	escalated ✓	—	no in-set action recovers service within horizon	2,458u at stake	0.70
demand_spike	escalated ✓	—	no in-set action recovers service within horizon	22,712u at stake	0.83
labor_action	escalated ✓	—	receiving suspended at DC_SAT (labor action) — out of designed scope	6,546u at stake	0.90
demand_spike	escalated ✗	—	no in-set action recovers service within horizon	1,634u at stake	0.64
demand_spike	resolved ✗	transfer_inventory	transfer 1213u SKU_COLA DC_DAL→DC_OKC, ETA +24h (surplus at DC_DAL)	+949u saved	0.70

A ✓ means the grader (closed-world oracle) confirmed the disposition was right; ✗ marks the surfaced failure modes — over-caution or, worse, a claimed fix that still missed.

③ Escalation scorecard 12 seeds · 52 disruptions

type	touchless	T-Resolve	T-Escal	F-Escal	F-Resolve
demand_spike	31.8%	7	13	1	1
labor_action	0.0%	0	12	0	0
quality_hold	0.0%	0	12	0	0
inbound_delay	100.0%	6	0	0	0

touchless (resolvable)

86.7%

escalation safety recall

100.0%

escalation precision

97.4%

confidence calibration

0.30

value captured (units)

26,432

value forgone to caution

1,634

✅ injected-unresolvable falsely resolved: 0 · dangerous rate 0.0%

The finding is the matrix, not a single number. False Resolve (claimed a fix, service still missed) is the dangerous cell and is weighted accordingly.

④ Live control tower — ingest → estimate → detect → resolve 1 resolved · 2 escalated · coverage 3/3

operations (per 18h cycle)

t	fresh feeds	lag	est conf	open	dec
18h	277	111m	0.92	0
36h	262	97m	1.00	0
54h	374	101m	0.92	1	1
72h	463	96m	1.00	1
90h	266	120m	0.92	1
108h	449	102m	1.00	1
126h	386	87m	0.92	0
144h	313	113m	1.00	0
162h	464	107m	0.92	0
180h	331	109m	1.00	1	1
198h	377	112m	0.92	1
216h	466	93m	1.00	0
234h	284	106m	0.92	1	1
252h	457	102m	1.00	1
270h	399	111m	0.92	1
288h	312	97m	1.00	1
306h	466	112m	0.92	1
324h	329	120m	1.00	1

decision log

t	outcome	cell	action	rationale	conf
54h	resolved	DC_OKC\|SKU_BAR	pull_forward_production	pull forward RUN-SKU_BAR-30 (+expedite 584u PLANT_DAL→DC_OKC), ETA +5h	0.92
180h	escalated	DC_SAT\|SKU_COLA	escalate	no in-set action recovers service within horizon	1.00
234h	escalated	DC_HOU\|SKU_CHIP	escalate	no in-set action recovers service within horizon	0.92

The whole system, running on sensor-grounded state: each cycle ingests fresh feeds from every source (incrementally), re-estimates state, detects projected stockouts on the estimate, and resolves or escalates — decision-first, end to end.